Dear Wags,

So, you’re settling in for the winter, dimly aware that this is supposed to be the season for Big Awards Movies. The 97th Academy Awards are but four months away, and all the major players will be in circulation by year's end. This time last year, there was already a clear Oscar frontrunner (Oppenheimer). Not so this November: festival darlings are slugging it out with Hollywood’s major holiday releases, and there is no unqualified standout. Here’s what you should pay attention to.

Yours Ever,

Awards Mavens Marcello Rubini and Sarah Brown

A Real Pain

Jesse Eisenberg’s Holocaust tourism comedy is our contender for The Little Movie That Could slot—think of it as The Holdovers of the year’s Oscar entrants. The story of an uptight schlemiel (Eisenberg) and his wacko cousin (Kieran Culkin) honoring their grandmother by traipsing through the Majdanek death camp is sweet and hilarious (plus, the theme is irresistible to Oscar voters). It could contend in a host of major categories, but it’s Culkin’s engaging performance that seems destined for recognition. He’s shaping up to be the Supporting Actor frontrunner.—Bob Harris

Anora

Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or-winning drama has been a critical favorite since its Cannes debut. It’s also a showcase for up-and-comer Mikey Madison, lauded for her turn as a sex worker swept into a romance with the wayward son of a Russian oligarch. The Cinderella story is the sweetest movie Baker has ever made, but it still may be too gritty for some Academy voters. In any case, its overnight star should find herself among 2025’s Best Actress nominees.—Nina Yakushova

The Brutalist

Oof, auteurs! Brady Corbet’s three-and-a-half-hour epic requires an intermission; like Francis Ford Coppola’s exorbitant flop, Megalopolis, the daunting run time won’t pack them in. Still, A24 knows its lane: Corbet, only 36, is so ambitious that he makes insiders nostalgic for Hollywood’s golden era. The story of a Hungarian Holocaust survivor (Adrien Brody) chasing the American dream got a thunderous reception in Venice. Shot in 33 days for under $10 million, the picture should assure Corbet a directing nomination and clinch Brody’s second Best Actor nod (he won for The Pianist in 2003). It might help Felicity Jones edge into the supporting category if voters can sit through the whole movie.—Guido Anselmi

September 5

Swiss wunderkind Tim Fehlbaum directed and cowrote this thriller about the Black September attack on the 1972 Munich Olympics; the result is a taut historical drama and an epitaph for broadcast journalism. It’s an ensemble piece, with John Magaro as an ambitious young producer, Peter Sarsgaard as legendary TV exec Roone Arledge, and Ben Chaplin and Leonie Benesch as members of the crew that brought the hostage crisis to more than a billion viewers. Their actions raised big moral questions, but at least yesterday’s media wrestled with those. It should be in Best Picture contention.—Jane Craig

Emilia Pérez

Jacques Audiard’s gender and genre-bending musical is so determinedly weird it can’t be ignored. It’s been galloping toward the Oscars since all three of its leading actresses shared a Cannes award. Will a more staid constituency think it timely, or too out there? Clear the way for magnetic Karla Sofía Gascón, who plays a macho drug cartel lord who realizes he’s living the wrong life in the wrong body. After surgery, he becomes Emilia, determined to make amends for a legacy of violence. An attorney (likely Best Supporting Actress nominee Zoe Saldaña) helps with these acts of atonement, while the boss’s grieving wife (Selena Gomez), must find her way. A telenovela on acid, the movie’s audaciousness will be rewarded.—Jimmy Fergus

A Complete Unknown

James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic is a classy chronicle of the artist’s rise to fame, from the Village folk scene to his decision to “go electric” in the mid-1960s (Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Norbert Leo Butz, and Ed Norton round out the cast). An old-fashioned eulogy to a singular talent, this is the kind of story Academy voters salute with a Best Picture nod, and Chalamet is assured of an acting nomination. If he wins, he’ll be the youngest-ever Best Actor winner—squeaking past Brody, who was also 29, but eight months older, when he won for The Pianist. Barbaro’s charismatic turn as Joan Baez could nab a supporting nod.—Dewey Cox

Conclave

Ralph Fiennes is so good in Conclave, that we're almost crazy enough to call the Best Actor race now. OK, we’re not that nuts, but Fiennes is sailing into the awards race with a gust of goodwill for his role as a conflicted cardinal in the papal thriller directed by Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front). The story of backbiting and intrigue following the death of a pope gave a posse of mature performers (John Lithgow, Stanley Tucci, and Isabella Rossellini, etc.) meaty parts in an era thin on theatrical feature-length dramas. In particular, a Rossellini win as Best Supporting Actress would play to the sentimental home crowd.—Lankester Merrin

The Blockbusters

What does the Academy crave more than anything? For actual hits to be nominated in the major categories. That’s supposed to lock in an audience for the Oscar telecast, though we’re not buying that math. Are TV viewers going to be that psyched to see Ariana Grande sing “Popular”…again? Whatever, Wicked is getting a Best Picture nod. Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II will also be in the mix, but it’s unlikely to repeat the run of its 2000 predecessor, which won five Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor (for Russell Crowe). Denzel Washington may well score Best Supporting Actor recognition as the Colosseum’s scenery-chewing villain. Elsewhere, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part II—a critically lauded smash—should get love from voters. Steve McQueen’s Blitz was supposed to find its way into the top category, but it is less assured of a spot. Bet on John M. Chu’s rendering of Broadway witchery to grab the most nominations. Believing the movie will work hocus-pocus on awards show ratings is more of a stretch.—Winifred Sanderson

Best Actor

Colman Domingo, nominated last year for Rustin, should push his way back into Best Actor contention for his turn as a Shakespeare-loving convict in the woefully underappreciated Sing Sing. He’ll likely join Fiennes (Conclave), Brody (The Brutalist), Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), and red-hot Sebastian Stan (either for The Apprentice or A Different Man). Among the passel of other hopefuls, Daniel Craig gave the most daring performance of his career in Queer, but it feels like a reach. John David Washington is campaigning for his work in The Piano Lesson, but the real contender from that picture is a Best Supporting Actress hopeful, Danielle Deadwyler. As for Gladiator II’s Paul Mescal, we don’t think a pair of well-turned calves will put him over the line.—Luke Jackson

Best Actress

What if Angelina Jolie isn’t nominated for playing Maria Callas in Pablo Larraín's third diva picture (he’s already made Jackie and Spencer)? Now that would be a snub. Brace yourself—Maria is not loved— but it’s unlikely. Anora breakout Madison will join her among Best Actress contenders, Wicked’s Cynthia Erivo is in an unmeltable position with the season’s showiest part (her costar Grande is a Supporting Actress contender), and Emilia Pérez star Gascón is poised to be the first-ever trans nominee in the category. From there, the crystal ball goes cloudy: Marianne Jeanne-Baptiste is sublime in Hard Truths, her latest Mike Leigh collaboration, while Brazilian Fernanda Torres was a festival star for I’m Still Here. Saoirse Ronan may slide in for the recovery drama The Outrun (or get a supporting nod for Blitz). Nicole Kidman could make it for the sex thriller Babygirl, Demi Moore gave it her all in The Substance, and Pamela Anderson (!) caused a stir in The Last Showgirl, but those weren’t Oscar movies. That leaves Amy Adams, terrific in the weird Nightbitch, and Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore, who did what they could for Pedro Almodovar’s disjointed The Room Next Door (which could get a Best Picture nod just the same). We’re putting a little money on 94-year-old June Squibb for Josh Margolin’s delightful granny caper movie Thelma. Don’t count her out.—Mary Cleary

The Global Field

As in past years, top entrants for Best International Feature may also find their way into the Best Picture category. Emilia Pérez (France), will benefit from that double dip; it’s already the heavy favorite in the overseas film category. But upsets happen, and if so, Mohamed Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) couldn’t be timelier. The condemnation of Iranian authoritarianism won a special Cannes award. Walter Salles’ powerful I’m Still Here (Argentina) should get love, with its star Torres also vying for the Best Actress nod. Rounding out the top tier are Denmark’s abortion-themed horror flick The Girl with the Needle and Ireland’s hip-hop opus, Kneecap. Other competitors include Chile’s In Her Place and Norway’s Armand. Latvia’s Flow, an animated fantasy starring a resourceful cat, might slink in here.—Akeem Joffer

Toons

The majors will trot out holiday heavy hitters (Moana 2, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim) but the animated field is already crowded. Inside Out 2, a global smash, is the frontrunner, with Dreamwork/Universal’s The Wild Robot nipping at its heels. We think Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, IFC’s Memoir of a Snail, and Gints Zilbalodis’ Flow will round out the group. This is the first time a broader cohort of voters outside the world of animation will be able to weigh in on nominees, and that may open the door to more corporate products such as Piece by Piece, Ultraman Rising, and even Kung Fu Panda 4. —Stu Miley

CultureWag is the brainchild of JD Heyman, former top editor at People and Editor-in-Chief of Entertainment Weekly (among other gigs), and staffed by the Avengers of Talent. Our goal is to cover interesting topics with wit and integrity. We serve smart, funny recommendations to the most hooked-in audience in the galaxy. Questions? Drop us a line at intern@culturewag.com.

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