Dear Wags,

Every year at Oscar time, we ask ourselves: When will Hollywood cry uncle? Bemoaning the industry’s decline is getting a little rote. Or, as our fickle literary agent reminds us, Everything that can be said about the fall of show business has been said. Meantime, can’t we enjoy the pictures? The movies were surprisingly good this year.

We root for Hollywood because we’re contrarian and sentimental. We root for Hollywood despite its hypocrisies, crimes, and exorbitant flops. We root for Hollywood because it’s too easy to root against it. Telling Hollywood to get real and face its predicaments is beside the point. It is not a reality-based business.

The ongoing murder of Hollywood has a few culprits —rapacious tech companies, corporate incompetence, creative bankruptcy, and most importantly, a wayward audience. In order for the movies to be a grand public spectacle, they must captivate the public; not just once or twice a year, but all the time. Without the crowd, you have something else. Hollywood is saddled with poor leadership, a sclerotic content distribution model, and a profoundly distracted constituency. Once, it confidently set the cultural tone. Now it chases memes like everybody else.

Inexorably, the Oscars recede from the center of cultural discourse. This is not the Academy’s fault, though it obstinately makes few concessions to popular taste. The creation of the Academy Museum—Renzo Piano’s $500 million Death Star looming over the old May Company building—was a sign. When popular culture becomes museumified, it surrenders the street and heads for the embalming parlor. We still admire Monet, but his power to provoke peaked in 1880.

Yet we must have awards. Jimmy Kimmel is good at an impossible job, but production tweaks will never fix what is broken. Critiquing a telecast the masses ignore is a deck chair shuffle. The show will go on until water subsumes the crow’s nest. Perhaps it’s time to accept it, and enjoy a most glorious wreck.

There are brilliant movies, just as there are memorable concertos and important plays. Smart people appreciate that Tolstoy is great, even if they don’t have time to read him. It is heartbreaking, watching Hollywood grapple with is marginalization. It will always have devotees and still attracts and develops remarkable talent. It may not matter that everyday folk don’t give a damn.

If you believe entertainment is just a crummy numbers game, then the numbers are harrowing. If you see something else in the pictures — oh yes, magic—then there are reasons to have faith. We don’t believe in fantasies hatched in boardrooms, but in the ones that occasionally shine down from big screens. Here’s to the crackpots and obsessives who join us in the dark.

Yours Ever,

Sarah Brown & Marcello Rubini

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer (Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers)

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Imagine the nuclear fallout if Oppenheimer doesn’t win. The question is whether it can rack up enough Academy Awards to become one of the most decorated pictures of all time. That’s very possible, but it will have to knock off the competition in a couple of competitive below-the-line categories. —Marcello Rubini

Directing

Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)

Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)

Poor Things (Yorgos Lanthimos)

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Your money is safe on Nolan. His movie is as impregnable as Eisenhower’s America.—Sarah Brown

Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)*

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

If you believe in miracles, the Oscar may go to Golden Globe winner Paul Giamatti of The Holdovers. Snap out of it: the Golden Globes are irrelevant. Murphy won BAFTA and SAG, and he’s way out in front. —S.B.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)

Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Ever the Jack Palance Award. This laurel routinely goes to someone who has paid his dues. Now, who does that sound like? Downey is riding the Unstoppenheimer Express. Meanwhile, Gosling will bring the house down gyrating to the Ken song. —M.R.

Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening (Nyad)

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

Emma Stone (Poor Things)*

The race is between Gladstone and Stone, who gave an epic performance in Poor Things. Yeah, yeah —it’s Gladstone who quietly keeps on winning. Plus, nobody thinks Stone, who already has a Best Actress win and three previous Oscar nominations, won’t get another shot. If you are paying attention to big, inspiring narratives (which is what Academy voters are paid to do), Gladstone still has it in the bag. —M.R.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

America Ferrera (Barbie)

Jodie Foster (Nyad)

Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Nobody has upset Randolph all season. She’s racked up critics accolades and guild awards. It’s going to end how it started, with her giving a victory speech. —M.R.

Animated Feature Film

The Boy and the Heron*

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal)

We’d prefer to see The Boy and the Heron win in this category. It very well could, but Spider-Verse was a hit, and may be the last invunerable superhero franchise. —M.R.

International Feature Film

Io Capitano (Italy)

Perfect Days (Japan)

Society of the Snow (Spain)

The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)

The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Jonathan Glazer’s chilling adaptation of the Martin Amis novel would be a front runner for Best Picture in another year. It’s taking home this award. —M.R.

Cinematography

El Conde (Edward Lachman)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)

Maestro (Matthew Libatique)

Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)

Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

Van Hoytema pulled out all the stops to deliver a cinematic epic. —S.B.

Costume Design

Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)*

Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)

Napoleon (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)

Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)

Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

Period pictures always have the inside lane when it comes to costume design. We’re going with Waddington’s loopy wardrobe for Poor Things. A laurel for Barbie is possible (get ready for morning-after snub stories), and Napoleon was certainly filled with uniforms. —S.B.

Documentary Feature Film

Bobi Wine: The People's President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol (Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath)

Not only is 20 Days a riveting documentary, it simply could not be more timely. Get ready for a speech castigating Congress and a standing ovation. —S.B.

Documentary Short Film

The ABCs of Book Banning (Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesi)

The Barber of Little Rock

Island in Between

The Last Repair Shop *

Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó *

You know what was lovely? Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó, Disney’s cuddly entrant about two grandmas. You know what appeals to Angelenos? The Last Repair Shop, a valentine to the musical instrument repair shop for L.A.’s public schools. We’re still think The ABC’s of Book Banning appeals most to Academy voters. —M.R.

Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)

The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)

Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)

Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

Other than a notable detonation, Oppenheimer is mostly 1950s people sitting in rooms, smoking and redbaiting. It’s very hard to make that compelling, which explains why Lame is in a class by herself. —S.B.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue)

Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell)

Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)

Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston)

Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé)

We’re going to give it to the schnoz. — S. B.

Music (Original Score)

American Fiction (Laura Karpman)

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)

Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)

Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

What are we up to now, Oscar No. 800 for Oppenheimer? Göransson, who previously won this category for his work in Black Panther, is set to win again. —M.R.

Music (Original Song)

The Fire Inside from Flamin' Hot; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

I'm Just Ken from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt

It Never Went Away from American Symphony; Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson

Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) from Killers of the Flower Moon; Music and Lyric by Scott George

What Was I Made For? from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell

What Was I Made For? is a melancholy tune about blazing your own path. I’m Just Ken is a one-note joke. The smarter doll movie song wins. And how delighted are we to see Diane Warren in this category yet again? Very. —S.B.

Production Design

Barbie (Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis)

Napoleon (Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff)

Oppenheimer (Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman)

Poor Things (Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek)*

Poor Things was delightful to look at. We won’t be surprised if we’re wrong here. Should Oppenheimer get past it, it’s taking home an unprecedented haul. . — M.R.

Animated Short Film

Letter to a Pig*

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme*

WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (Dave Mullins and Brad Booker)

We preferred Pachyderme, by Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius). But WAR IS OVER! won the Annie Award and seems tailor-made for the Academy’s Boomers. —M.R.

Live Action Short Film

The After*

Invincible

Knight of Fortune

Red, White and Blue

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Wes Anderson and Steven Rales)

Netflix has the two leading contenders here. The After, from Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham, starred David Oyelowo as a rideshare driver coping with loss and made a bit of a splash. We think Anderson, who has seven previous Oscar nominations and no wins, has the edge. —S.B.

Sound

The Creator

Maestro

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer*

The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Bern)

Our hearts tell us that Tarn Willers and Johnnie Bern of The Zone of Interest could be spoilers here. But if you listen to your head (and you have money on this), Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O'Connell of Oppenheimer are going home happy. —S.B.

Visual Effects

The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould)

Godzilla Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek)

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould)

Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould)

This one goes to the big scaly guy from Monster Island. — M.R.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

American Fiction, Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson

Barbie, Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach

Oppenheimer, Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan

Poor Things, Screenplay by Tony McNamara

The Zone of Interest, Written by Jonathan Glazer

Jefferson’s adaptation of Erasure by Percival Everett is close to a lock. Oppenheimer was based on a major book, but voters probably don’t think of it that way. —M.R.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Anatomy of a Fall, Screenplay - Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

The Holdovers, Written by David Hemingson

Maestro, Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer

May December, Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik

Past Lives, Written by Celine Song

If you are at the Oscars, you’ll probably be in the bar when this is announced, but there are a host of great contenders. We loved Past Lives, which has been denied major awards, and May December (likewise). The Holdovers is the closest thing to a spoiler. Triet and Harari wrote a brilliant, convoluted thriller. Toutes nos félicitations. —M.R.