Dear Wags,

Everybody makes Best lists this time of year. At Wag Central, we strain against the current, but that almighty pull..it’s too much! Judging our inbox, you seem to like these things. So, we’ll bring you the usual Bests and a few Dreadfuls before the curtain falls on godawful 2024. But don’t get us started on that loopy, line-dancing murder mystery, The Perfect Couple. We might never stop.

Presumably, Liev Schrieber was paid his weight in diamonds for that exhibition. Oh, we kid—we kid! The thing nowadays is to Be Supportive, because in Hollywood, among other places, things feel so dicey…which brings us to the Awards Squad’s take on the movies.—JDH

Like last awards season, this one has a delusional giddiness about it. Last year there was Barbenheimer, and this year we have Wicked (sorry, Gladiator II, that Glicked portmanteau didn’t stick). As the industry contracts, Big Movies that draw a mass audience are that much more important. And Universal’s witchy number is beyond big—It’s the steamroller that mowed down insiders and the public alike. “I’ve never seen this before, in all my years working in films,” says The Sharpest Marketer in Town. “From the early screenings, the reaction was so huge. People were crying uncontrollably, and leaving wanting to see it again.” That’s when the studio realized its popcorn musical was an Oscar movie. Says the Marketer: “If you asked me in August, I wouldn’t have had that expectation.”

But once the (mostly good) reviews hit, destiny took over. Sure, the press harped on the 2-hour and 40-minute running time, but the crowds didn’t care. And the money! The picture is closing on $300 million in its first weeks of release, making it the most successful Hollywood adaptation of a Broadway musical in history. “People are taking in the female empowerment message and seeing it 11 times,” says our Marketer. “It may be long, but that ending works for audiences. Audiences will forgive a lot of sins if a movie sticks its ending. This thing is going to play and play.”

That record Thanksgiving box office—$420 million, ka-ching brought to you by Wicked, Gladiator II, and that tsunami, Moana 2—has the industry hoping recent traumas are behind it. All the big worries remain (AI, labor woes, audience fragmentation, and contraction), but it’s been a grand month. Call it a hallucination before the final plunge, but in the meantime, we shall have an Academy Awards.

They will be given a levitating spell by Wicked, the sort of movie Oscar voters tended to be snotty about in the past. Not so long ago, they mostly cold-shouldered Steven Spielberg’s reinvention of West Side Story, but that film was not the commercial juggernaut that Wicked is. Not only has the Academy changed demographically, but the ecosystem for theatrical releases is unrecognizable from only a few years ago. Within the critical Academy voting constituencies (save for those snobby directors), Wicked is being very warmly received.

Wicked has a strong shot at Best Picture and its star Cynthia Erivo, is well positioned in the Best Actress category. Her costar, Ariana Grande, should slide into the Best Supporting Actress class, but the nod itself is likely to be the reward. Director Jon Chu has a tougher lane, but the studio will fight for him. Those three all walked off with National Board of Review laurels (hardly determinative, but a good gauge of enthusiasm). At the big show, Wicked will also be showered with many more nominations. That’s good news for promoters of the perenially wobbly telecast, which was helped by Barbie and Oppenheimer last year.

As the critics’ laurels start trickling in, let’s run down our thoughts on a few of the major races as we head into Christmas:

Best Picture

• The Brutalist. Director Brady Corbet (that’s Cor-BAY!) is getting the egghead vote.

• Conclave. Is the Pope Catholic? An unimpeachable pick. In this field, it will benefit from voters trying to balance art and commerce.

• Wicked. The unstoppable popcorn movie.

• Anora. Another critical darling. Could a little movie about sex work win Best Picture? It’s a reach, but the Academy has changed.

• Dune: Part Two. The other blockbuster. Gladiator II doesn’t have its mojo.

• Emilia Pérez. Wicked taps post-Trump victory empowerment themes in a less divisive way. It hangs in here but has a better shot as Best International Feature.

• The Rest: Payal Kapadia’s Mumbai drama All We Imagine is Light is beloved but she did say the Oscars were “parochial”—she’s right, of course! Gladiator II could hold, and A Royal Pain is The Little Movie That Could. A Complete Unknown has a cleaner shot at Best Actor. September 5 has champions but may suffer from comparison to 2005’s Munich, which was nominated for 5 Oscars. Nickel Boys and A Different Man have their devotees but don’t feel top-tier. The underrated Sing Sing could break through. The Seed of the Sacred Fig is headed for the Best International Feature bucket. And nobody knows much about Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2.

Best Actor

• Ralph Fiennes. Nomination locked for Conclave. He’s been nominated four times in the leading category and won Best Supporting Actor (for 1994’s Schindler’s List). But he needs to play the game. Says an insider: “Please God, don’t be a crabapple.”

• Timothée Chalamet. The goodwill for his Bob Dylan portrayal in A Complete Unknown makes us feel like he’s neck-and-neck with Fiennes.

• Adrien Brody. His turn as an immigrant architect in The Brutalist is his showiest performance since he won for The Pianist in 2003.

• Colman Domingo. His stunning performance put Sing Sing in contention, and he has a sharp campaign team.

• Daniel Craig. We’re bumping up his chances for the offbeat Queer. Still, he’ll have to get past buzzy Sebastian Stan (A Different Man; The Apprentice). Hollywood’s desire not to mix it up with Trump may help him.

• The Rest: A stable category. Nominations for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Jesse Eisenberg (A Royal Pain), Jude Law (The Order), Joaquin Phoenix (for the disastrous Joker: Folie á Deux)—and dare we put in a good word for chilling Hugh Grant (The Heretic)—would be surprising.

  Best Actress

• Cynthia Erivo. We wouldn’t typically be bullish on a musical lead. But this isn’t an ordinary year. She’s already built a rep as a serious actress and Wicked is huge.

• Angelina Jolie. Nobody is a certainty in this category. Jolie should get nominated for Maria, but there’s a lot of chop around this campaign.

• Mikey Madison. Her nomination feels like the best bet for the acclaimed Anora.

• Karla Sofía Gascón. The Emilia Pérez star would be the first trans person nominated in this category. We think her castmate Zoë Saldaña has a better chance as Best Supporting Actress.

• Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Her last collaboration with Mike Leigh, 1996’s Secrets & Lies, got her a Best Supporting Actress nod and made her a name in America. For that reason, we’re giving her the littlest edge to break through here.

• The Rest: The Best Actress category is going to people guessing all the way through. Demi Moore (The Substance) and Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), are vets doing good work in little movies, but the performance to watch is Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. Any of them could push into the top tier. Then there’s Brazil’s Fernanda Torres who was stunning in I’m Still Here. Right behind them: formidable Tilda Swinton (Another Room), Amy Adams, who burns it up in Nightbitch, and feisty June Squibb in Thelma. —Marcello Rubini and Sarah Brown

Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang…Again!

Black Doves (Netflix). The boom in Brit-inflected espionage shows continues. We’ve had Slow Horses, The Day of the Jackal, and George Clooney and Grant Heslov’s CIA thriller The Agency with Michael Fassbender. Wag Joe Barton’s entrant ups the star power with Keira Knightley as a London mum/covert operative who takes out platoons of baddies after her cover gets blown. Ben Whishaw is all action this time as the agent brought in to help. Bonus: Sarah Lancashire is their chilly handler.—Lucia Sciarra